Tories and Grits Take a Break, While Dippers and Separatists Overwork: Day 8

All honest and hard-working citizens deserve a break every once and while in Canada, and so the frontrunners of the 41^st General Election thought it wise to avoid the cameras today – in spite of the fact that the Globe & Mail reported common knowledge of the costliness of running a federal election (approximately 300 million dollars – a 50 percent increase from a decade ago). Notwithstanding, the remaining federalist – the NDP – and separatist – the Bloc – parties decided vacationing wasn’t for them, rising to the occasion to show Canadians – or French speaking separatists – that they are ready to stand up and commit. Indeed both Jack Layton of the NDP and Gilles Duceppe of the Bloc Quebecois wagered that remaining on the campaign trail was a deep sacrifice voters would recognize as being forthright and respectable. Unfortunately for both Mr Layton and Mr Duceppe, their day to shine in the political spotlight did not pan out the way they would have particularly wanted.

For starters, Mr Layton and his party were banking on an “orange wave” to hit Canada, after holding their biggest rally yet in the NDP stronghold of Halifax, Nova Scotia – holding two of the five seats in the area, the electoral region, and particularly Halifax, was represented in the past by former party leader Alexa McDonough and is currently held by New Democrat Premier Darrell Dexter. The crowd was estimated to be 400, and Layton made an announcement concerning veteran’s benefits, specifically promising to stop reductions in pension payments and helping veterans shift to trade and construction jobs. The media, on the other hand, went after Mr Layton hard for only attracting the most loyal disciples to attend such rallies, pointing to higher attendance numbers from previous elections. Mr Layton felt obliged to criticize the media, commenting to one reporter, “Oh come on!”. Frankly, it has been quite a disaster for Mr Layton since the beginning of the election, the energy from their national campaign dismal and irrelevant. What was supposed to be the NDP’s opportunity to breakthrough today has simply reinforced the lethargy that has consumed their former campaign vigour. I am afraid Mr Layton really failed to score big with today’s “massive” – sorely under-attended – rally.

The Bloc, akin to the French, is having a hard time keeping Quebec City. Gilles Duceppe spent most of today in the eastern part of the riding Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier, where controversial incumbent Andre Arthur currently sits. I suspect Mr Duceppe believes the Bloc has a fighting chance against the independent, citing Arthur’s lack of attendance in Parliament and odd behaviour from working part-time as a bus driver. Also, the Bloc have launched themselves into the debate frenzy Premier Jean Charest has had with the Conservatives over plans to help fund the Lower Churchill hydro project in Labrador. The controversy was finally picked up by English media this morning, and it is suggested that the Bloc may eat away at the few seats the Conservatives actually have in the province.

With that said, recent poll data released today by Nanos (again) shows that Mr Duceppe’s strategy has been weak thus far, showing the federalist parties remaining viable and the Conservative Party gaining momentum – even surpassing the Liberals. The difficulty for both Mr Duceppe and (more so) Premier Charest is that they have lost a lot of legitimacy and support amongst Quebeckers. While Mr Duceppe personally remains personable and likable, his party’s purpose is lacking in a time that separation is no longer being discussed. Premier Charest’s attack may turn out to benefit the Conservatives in the end, as Quebeckers are frequently reminded of alleged corruption in the Charest government.

For the most part, that was the national discussion and campaigning that took place today. Lacking in new information, reporters and columnists continued to bash Mr Harper for only allowing five questions per press conference, and had a field day about the possibility of a one-on-one debate between Mr Ignatieff and Mr Harper. Above all, there seems to be a lot of interest in comedian Rick Mercer’s proposal to host a possible one-on-one debate, adding fuel to the fire. There is a perception by some that Mr Harper went back on his word by first inciting and then refusing to debate Mr Ignatieff in a dual. Of course, others suggest that Mr Harper is in fact a Machiavellian of-sort by doing so. For example, David Frum today suggested Mr Harper exploited Mr Ignatieff’s real disdain against him. That is, by having Mr Ignatieff focus on a conversation about himself and on a debate that clearly leaves out Mr Layton and Mr Duceppe, the opposition is divided instead of united in their messaging against the government in power. The perception of backing out may have an effect on Mr Harper’s leadership rank though.

The Conservatives have not taken too much of a hit for these “gaffes”, however. The Nanos poll mentioned above shows the Conservative up from 39.4 yesterday to 41.3 percent (majority territory). A fine line must be tread by the Conservative, because albeit gains have been made at the expense of the Liberals in Atlantic Canada and Quebec, there has been a small drop in Ontario toward the Liberals. Winning seats throughout Ontario – by capturing key electoral districts like Kingston & the Islands (where I am from currently), holding onto southwestern gains, and breaking through the GTA – is a must if the Conservatives want that coveted majority. Nevertheless, despite this drop in Ontario, I believe the Conservatives won today, simply by crossing over that 40 percent threshold.

Then again, does winning today really mean anything? Let us frank, the Conservatives did well because the Liberals were out of the picture, the Bloc is nothing new, and the NDP is irrelevant. Tomorrow is going to present new challenges for the Tories, as the Liberals launch their platform. The Conservatives plan on having Jim Flaherty speak on it, but I sure hope their prepared for the media love-fest over it that will ensue after its release.

Day 8 Winner: Conservative Party of Canada