Finding a Wedge: Day 23

Day 22 had the Liberals opening a new front on the Tories, as their hold on the electoral lines seemed to be weakening.

Day 23 shows the Tory defense holding. As the Liberals pressed forward on the healthcare theme, Harper has succeeded in (if only temporarily) changing the channel.

This new line of argument is simple and direct: a majority is needed to stop a resurgent separatist movement. It's topical. It's reinforced by this weekend's PQ convention. And it's a winnable issue for the Tories.

The Liberals seem to be almost caught flatfooted on the topic falling back on the argument that Harper is using "fear" to gain votes. That argument is not likely to gain any traction with an electorate that is watching ads produced by Liberals to scare them over healthcare.

It'll be interesting to see how this new tact from the Tories pans out. If they're successful it could lead to a Tory majority.

If they aren't they may have at least limited the damage being done to them on the Healthcare assault.

Day 23 Winner: The Tories

Liberal Counter-Attacks: Day 22

The beginning game is apparently over for the Liberal Party. I sense that a drastic change in strategy is afoot.

First, Jean Chretien and Paul Martin are now welcome generals in the Liberal fight.

Second, healthcare has apparently emerged as a Liberal theme. That cudgel was used successfully by Martin and Chretien to repetitively assault former and current Conservative foes with telling success.

Third, the Liberals have suddenly decided that negative ads do in fact work (again!). The people who invented the Canadian Attack Ad have come full circle.

The Tories have responded swiftly and adequately to this line of attack. As they should.

Healthcare is the ultimate wedge issue for the Liberals. The Tories are not seen (rightly or wrongly) as staunch defenders of the healthcare status-quo. This puts them on perilously dangerous ground. The standard Tory approach has been to triangulate on the issue and nullify it as soon as they can.

In a telling moment during the debates, Layton lead a healthcare charge against Harper. If you look carefully you can notice that Harper's posture and facial expression changes. It was telling, because I believe he was very concerned.

What the Liberals did today was the equivalent of pulling out the heavy artillery most generals save for emergencies. Good 'ol bunker Tory is getting hammered today.

The Tories did well in response, but they need to turn up the heat on their own if they want to survive. That means changing the channel before this Liberal assault gains legs.

That means they need to stage a counter-assault on a wedge issue of their own.

Day 22 Winner: The Liberals

Interesting Trends...

I'd like our loyal readers to look carefully at the results of Nanos daily polling done since the beginning of the election:

In particular, I found it interesting that the NDP's apparent recent "upward trend" didn't start with the debates (Despite what the MSM says).

The NDP's latest uptick began with a bottoming out on April the 8th.

The question is, what happened on or about the 8th?

If you look at the calendar to the right you will note that this blog awarded the NDP a string a victories starting on the 7th.

Coincidence? Or something more?

Tears & Ballots : Day 21

The debates are over. The flash of air assault fire that briefly took the electoral battlefield has abated.

Now the Guergis affair has flared up. And, I believe, it's causing the equivalent of battlefield blowback. Unintended as it may be, I believe that Guergis's highlighting of the allegations made against her makes Harper look good rather than bad.

Instead of Canadians asking themselves the question that Guergis (and surely the Liberals) would like, namely "Why did Haper turf her?" The question they will ask is "Why didn't he do it sooner."

I don't want to comment on whether the allegations are true. They clearly have no evidence to substantiate them.

But evidence doesn't matter in the court of public opinion. And that's where this election battle is being played.

Highlighting this issue shows Harper as mean, tough, unrepentant... and decisive. Something Ignatieff has consistently failed to convince Canadians of.

In effect, this highlights a contrast with Ignatieff that the Tories have been playing on themselves. Harper is decisive, meanwhile Ignatieff is "Just Visiting." Harper is competent, meanwhile Ignatieff is "Not here for you..."

Again, I'm not talking about concrete realities here, I'm talking about pure political positioning only.

With most polls showing that Tory Bunker is holding strong, I think the Tories have actually made some inches of progress on the battlefield today.

Day 21 Winner: The Tories

Loser, I declare thee Sona

Setting aside the allegations about "ethnic costumes" or Tamil candidates, I'll focus on what happened late in the day in Guelph. I don't know what exactly happened, but according to some students there, local Conservative Communications Director Michael Sona attempted to reach for and grab a ballot box at the polling station, arguing that it was an illegal poll.

From everything I've seen, he appears to have had a legitimate argument (and local Conservatives claim that he did not in fact reach for the ballot box). Regardless, this is EXACTLY the kind of publicity the Conservatives don't need right now, and precisely the wrong way of going about things.

While Stephen Harper has been condemned for the ruthless discipline he exercises in controlling his caucus, it must be remembered how utterly savage the national media used to be with every misstatement by a Canadian Alliance or Conservative candidate. Now that candidates are on such a short leash, the press has moved onto seizing on Conservative staffers.

Conservatives will argue that it was unfair, but one cannot campaign against both parties and the press, and so they should expect attention to be drawn to everything. The name of the game for the Conservatives now is to avoid controversy - and having anybody associated with a campaign openly confront voting officials is a prime example of what NOT to do. Allegations of disrespecting democracy already abound, and anything that reinforces that impression must be avoided at all cost.

While this may be attributed to it having been such a slow campaign day, this has the potential to grow. I'd even go so far as to say Guelph just started leaning more into the Liberal camp after today's incident. This one could be a costly loss in the quest for a Majority. This story fits a compelling Liberal narrative of Conservative contempt for democracy, and is already being seized upon by Liberal columnists. Just wait until the press finds out Mr. Sona works on the Hill and we'll see how much traction this will get.

So, no clear winners today, but the Conservatives lost on this front. They're going to get hammered even harder in the coming weeks. We'll have to wait to see what the full impact will be for them.

DAY 21 LOSER: Conservatives

"What Leadership is About": Debate Post-mortem

Many of the commentators are agreeing that Liberal Leader Ignatieff didn't fare well tonight; apparently, if you go to Liberal.ca, their war room isn't doing much better. Must not be the red party's day today...:

...and the Debate Winner Is: Day 18

Was there a knock-out punch tonight? After 27 years of relatively calm debates, yes!

Who was involved? Simply, Jack Layton when he zinged Michael Ignatieff for his attendance record in Parliament.

Who benefited from this? Layton will for sure -- the NDP numbers will certainly be going up after tonight. That said, Stephen Harper will have a big smile on his face tonight. The attendance zing symbolized the lacklustre performance of Liberal leader Ignatieff and was not able to throw Stephen Harper off-script.

Winners: NDP and Conservatives