Dull as this campaign has become, one wonders how each of the three main federalist leaders are looking upon their efforts after week 1. It is clear that the Liberals have picked up the most momentum after the first seven days (see Shane's post above for more details on how this played in Day 7); their leader is beginning to be questioned about the budgeting of big ticket items from daycare to scholarships, but you wouldn't know it if the Liberals are worried right now as their events are energetic and Ignatieff is clearly finding his stride with the debate over a one-on-one debate.If the Liberals have an issue that they should be concerned about, it is that the coverage of their campaign has been cotton balled to a certain degree -- if Michael Ignatieff looks like he has a good chance of becoming PM after May 2, he'll have to begin answering 'why': why the campaign now (aka what is the real reason to punish the Harper Conservatives?); why is he a valuable asset to voters? This will be the real test for the Liberals; one which the Tories failed in 2004 when they were in that position, but that the Liberals can draw lessons from.
Speaking of the Conservatives, their 'why' this week is why they are asking for votes at all? The blue campaign has actually been well-managed overall; the gaffes are small and likely already forgotten by Joe and Jane Canadian, Harper's policy announcements will stir the Tory base into action and the ads have done a good job at getting the governing party up to 39-41% in most polls. The air of staleness is quite the stench the Tories are giving off now though; they're not dead but they're certainly not lively either. The coalition talk has likely taken the party as far as it is going to get them and, going back to the why question, Harper's team would do well to spend the weekend trying to define their own vision of Canada for next week's campaign events. The flip-flop on the debate with the Liberal leader will hurt Harper's public image as a stable and decisive leader but, like the rest of the Conservative effort thus far, the party can recover if they pull it together in the coming days...or this could be the beginning of a slow and eventless implosion -- death by a thousand gradual cuts the Tories cannot be bothered to bandage.
The leader most in trouble tonight though has to be Jack Layton; as noted yesterday, he's at risk of becoming "Sideshow Jack" in this campaign by promising a few frivolous items that would find dye-in-the-wool NDPers hard-pressed to be inspired about, and by having his party almost completely shut out of the daily narrative. Even Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe and Green head Elizabeth May have earned themselves more influence so far in the English media than the NDP has; if this does not change soon, the NDP will find itself completely squeezed out by a polarized Con-Lib electorate and will have to fend for seats in already-parched Alberta, Saskatchewan and industrial centres in Winnipeg, Windsor and Hamilton. The NDP will have to find a defining attribute that it can attach itself to which the Liberals won't steal and the Conservatives won't touch. Otherwise, the 'why' the party will have to answer is why are you relevant in this campaign; a deadly question that has decimated the NDP in previous elections where it has failed to properly respond in kind.
Weekly Winners:
1st: The Liberals - for gaining momentum on the campaign trail
2nd: The Conservatives - for a stable, decent but hollow front runner campaign effort
3rd: The Bloc - for finding an effective Quebec narrative that even captured English Canada's attention
4th: The NDP - for failing to maintain a relevant place in the daily campaign happenings thus far
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