NDP Benefits, but Liberals Could be Big Winners: Day 18

Benjamin writes a fine analysis below on why the NDP won today -- so much so that we're inclined to give his analysis the benefit of being the deciding basis for turning the 11th on the calendar orange to the right of this posting.

That said, while the NDP is certainly going to be endeared by the eruption caused by a leaked Parliamentary report on spending at the G8 summit, the way that the rest of this week plays out will really determine where the Liberals end up on May 2 -- and the ball is firmly in their court now. Michael Ignatieff's herculean task of taking on the Prime Minister in tomorrow night's debate, and winning, becomes all the more crucial in light of this revelation, but a word of wisdom to the Liberal leader -- one of his predecessors, John Turner, quickly saw a supposed advantage over his Tory opponent turned against him when he took an patronage accusation against one Brian Mulroney too far 26 years ago; the rest, as they say, is history. Mr. Harper is a formidable adversary who, despite his perceived weaknesses, has proven that he learns from his mistakes over time; while the Liberals might be seeing today as a miracle, it could quickly turn into a curse if the Liberal leader enters tomorrow's debate overconfident and unattentive to his own weak spots.

Winner: The NDP...for now

Little Battles: Day 18

At Vimy Ridge, Canadians did not take the notorious "Hill 145" in a stunning blaze of glory. There was no Herculean stunning upset from the clutches of defeat. Instead the battle plan called for a series of small successes - one dependent on the other in a long chain leading to victory.

I can't help but point out that the daily predictions of "wins" on this blog mirrors this concept. The Daily winners calendar at the right can be thought of as a map of battle: the results of a series of mini-battles leading to a victory.

Today was one such battle. It was one where the Tories paid dearly, and the Liberals seemed to get caught in the mess.

Auditor General Sheila Fraser's Preliminary G20 report was ammunition for the opposition to pound the Tories as they roll into the debates. Playing the classic front-runner's campaign can only hold so long.

Yet the Liberals hardly faired better. Ignatieff found himself explaining away contradictory remarks made by himself regarding voting in foreign elections (namely did he?). This no doubt falls directly into the line of attack that the Tories have been playing: "He didn't come back for you." The Liberal leader has found himself exposed and in the line of fire directly.

Meanwhile the NDP managed to generate some negative headlines for both the Liberals and Tories for carting around and paying for (with taxpayer money mind you) Senators to move around the country during the campaign. They got praise for the number of women NDP candidates they're running in spite of everything.

Day 16 Winner: The NDP

Today does look a little sickly orange.

Layton Unveils the Liberal (Oops! NDP) Platform: Day 16

The NDP – not to be undone by the Liberals – have shown with their platform unveil that they are truly representative of the ‘tax and spend’ progressives that had plagued Canada for years in the ‘70s. They are promising to overindulge in spending by promising $60 billion in four years – funded in part by a corporate tax hike to 18 percent and additional revenue from a cap-n-trade scheme. Progressives will surely be impressed by their promises in creating more jobs, more green initiatives, better healthcare, and higher quality education. To break down the numbers, using the Conservative recent budget proposal in March as a baseline, Jack Layton is promising only $12.6 billion more in this fiscal year, and only $20.7 billion more in 2014-15. However, like the Conservatives and there miraculous discovery of $11 billion – a shortfall supposedly credited in efficiency savings that no one knew about a few weeks ago – the NDP have also found such an increase in savings and are promising to balance the budget a year ahead of schedule in 2014-15. Normally such an unrealistic utopian vision from Mr Layton would not bother Canadians with at least an ounce of sanity and common sense, but it is a very real possibility the NDP could have a role in government if Stephen Harper’s majority is thwarted. As such, the media is treating the NDP’s platform as a serious proposal that could effect change in Canada’s economic policies, also noting the similarities in the progressive offerings between them and the Liberal platform.

Mr Layton is undoubtedly worried about his dropping poll numbers, as he collapses in Ontario but remains competitive with the Tories in BC. There has been an erosion from the NDP to the Liberals in Ontario, credited in part to Michael Ignatieff’s positioning of the Liberals as the only alternative to beat Mr Harper. Therefore, at the platform launch today, Mr Layton was extremely wise to go after the Liberals today, citing much more vitriol against Mr Ignatieff than typical.

While much of the rest of today was uneventful, Gilles Duceppe of the Bloc Quebecois has proven that the a game of hockey – especially one involving a classic matchup between the Habs and Bruins – takes precedence over democracy in Canada. The French debate was originally scheduled for Thursday of this week, but after the Bloc – quickly followed by their coalition partners – complained about the date being set at exactly the same time as the hockey game, it was moved by the consortium of broadcasters to Wednesday. Somehow the story was manipulated by the opposition to be a testament of the Conservative’s  undemocratic ways, since it was argued by some that Mr Harper wanted less Canadians to watch the debate. While this is absurd, the coalition partners must be credited for keeping this narrative alive.

In fact, overall the Conservative Party had a pessimistic day. New Nanos numbers show the Conservatives and Liberals tied in Ontario, which suggest a majority will be difficult – if not impossible – to obtain. Also, news has come out that the Conservatives have tried to quietly approve bonuses for their ministerial office staffers, and the optics of this could be disastrous. Further, Stephen Woodworth has been embroiled in a mini-faux scandal in Kitchener Centre, after tweeting an “insensitive” joke on Twitter – with the punch line involving “crippled”. This is not good for the Tories in this riding, as it was taken from the Liberals in the last election by a close margin. Karen Redman – who held the riding until Mr Woodworth defeated her in the 2008 federal election – is running for the Liberals again, and it will be tough one.

Some parts of today are salvageable for the Conservatives, however. Speaking to reporters, Harper warned that if he fails to get a majority come 2 May, the opposition will enact policies similar to what was seen in the Trudeau government. Of course, progressives will salivate over the possibility, but the reality is that was a time when unemployment was at double digits, interest rates were high, spending was high, and so were taxes astronomical. While many Canadians have a favourable view of the late Pierre Trudeau – in part due to the indoctrination the education system and media has provided – the bad times in the late ‘70s and early ‘80s will resonate with some.

As for the Liberals, they stayed out of the political spot light mostly today and were really a non-factor. I hear Mr Ignatieff has (or had) a stop in Kingston, Ontario, where Liberal candidate Ted Hsu and Alicia Gordon are in a dead heat to take the former Speaker's seat -- Peter Milliken has since retired. I find it convenient he is there now, since I just left Kingston temporarily to canvass the Waterloo region. (Clearly, this is a politically opportunistic move, because he did not want to face the wrath of Shane Coote in person).

Now, considering what happened today, the NDP solidly “won” on the campaign trail. Their platform release in Toronto stole most of the headlines in the news, and the Conservatives had a rough day.

Day 16 Winner: New Democratic Party

Day 16 Loser: Conservative Party of Canada

Dippers Laughing: Day 13

Another day, another candidate spewing nonsense for Ignatieff to handle.

Harper finally apologized for evicting teery eyed children from rallies, and Jack Layton has decided to triangulate on the Law & Order issue.

But first a joke:

A Canadian bloke is walking down the street with a case of beer under his arm.

His friend Randy stops him and asks, "Hey Dave! Whatcha got that case of beer for?"

"Well, I got it for my wife, you see?" answers Dave.

"Wow," exclaims Randy, "Great trade."

What does this have to do with Day 13? Absolutely nothing. Ok, enough testing the patience of the editors of this blog - back to some strategic musings.

Day 13 Winner: The NDP

The Tories latest TFSA promise is a clever policy aimed at their natural winning issue: taxes. That being said, as they opened ground, the NDP have closed it in by moving into the middle on crime.

Crime, and Law& Order, are natural Tory winnable issues. The NDP's recent move, in my opinion, closes the gap with the Tories and has a "knock-the-wind-out" effect on the Tories on this issue.

To make matters worse the Dippers also came out on a healthcare offense against the Tories today. Healthcare is definitely not a winnable issue for the Tories. Layton warmed up the "two-tier" healthcare horn putting Harper on the defensive on an issue he'd much rather avoid.

In short the NDP managed to punch Harper twice in the gut today. They'll need more days like this if they hope to avoid loosing seats.

The Day Iggy Wished He Could Forget: Day 12

When you wake up in the morning and you find out that one of your Quebec candidates is allegedly a White Supremasist (or at least not particularly overly zealously pro-aboriginal) you know this day isn't going to be a good one.

That was Ignatieff's Day 12 of the 2011 federal election. Although well handled (the candidate was turfed) all he can hope for is that the page will turn quickly and the damage will be minimal.

Because even though this could have easily happened to any of the other federal parties, it doesn't ever seem to matter to the media.

Day 12 Winner: The Tories

They were missing from this story from the get go - it's the NDP that deserve cudos. Yet as always in Canadian politics, hardly ever does the victor get the spoils.

Without a Liberal Candidate to name in Manicougan, the Tories will certainly pick up some votes - maybe even enough to defeat the Bloc in that riding (The Tories did come in second there last time).

The NDP will get some new votes, but not much. Their role will most likely be forgotten by week's end.

The Day the Tories Needed: Day 11

As with most things during this campaign, it's what didn't happen today that really made a difference. After a Monday where the Prime Minister was asked the same question that inevitably comes up every election -- will he change any laws with respect to abortion -- and he invariably lost votes from both sides of the issue as a result, the Conservatives have bounced back quite nicely today by not letting the issue linger. In short, this may be the election when the Tories finally outgrow the "secret agenda" tag that was put upon them back in 2000 when Stockwell Day led the Canadian Alliance.

Balancing this, the governing party also unveiled a pair of ads today which put the focus squarely on the economy -- this is a winning issue for the Conservatives and, as noted here on Sunday, the Liberals might have done themselves in with their platform by releasing a document that belongs in a "times are good" season, not one where jobs and the economic well-being of the country is on the brink. With two new ads, both of them heavily borrowed from the US (for the record, all parties here steal from south of the border), but both of them well-executed to deliver the Tory message effectively. If the Tories continue to follow this strategy, they will win many more days to come.



Day 11 Winner: The Conservatives

The Day of Boring Nothings: Day 11

Another day in this election campaign has gone by... I wonder if anyone noticed?

Besides the desperate debate inclusion ruminations by Green Party leader Elizabeth May, was there anything of substance that any average Canuck would dare to waste five seconds to think about?

There are continuous stories about legendary Harper Aide Bruce Carson's lurid past... Which included among other things, being hired by Stephen Harper, and not to mention having been convicted of fraud thirty years ago in a case no one remembers. He also "may", just "may", have broken the law when he thought he had a valid loophole. Riveting. I really think the whole thing was a ploy for the media to run spreads of his alleged 20 something girlfriend and former prostitute. That does sell papers. I doubt it will change any votes.

What may cause some lost votes, is the Tories propensity for kicking out veterans, youth, and teary eyed children for being security risks at Harper Rallies.

That isn't quite the best way to gain votes. It may not cost them much, but this is exactly the type of thing that can cause people long term enemies.

Because there's nothing else going on today, I'm forced to make my call for today's winner based solely on the dry small facts above.

Day 11 Winner: The Liberals

Not because they were good at anything, but because (in a typically Canadian fashion) they were less bad than everybody else. If Iggy is going to win through "a death by a thousand cuts" this day was one such cut.