"What Leadership is About": Debate Post-mortem

Many of the commentators are agreeing that Liberal Leader Ignatieff didn't fare well tonight; apparently, if you go to Liberal.ca, their war room isn't doing much better. Must not be the red party's day today...:

...and the Debate Winner Is: Day 18

Was there a knock-out punch tonight? After 27 years of relatively calm debates, yes!

Who was involved? Simply, Jack Layton when he zinged Michael Ignatieff for his attendance record in Parliament.

Who benefited from this? Layton will for sure -- the NDP numbers will certainly be going up after tonight. That said, Stephen Harper will have a big smile on his face tonight. The attendance zing symbolized the lacklustre performance of Liberal leader Ignatieff and was not able to throw Stephen Harper off-script.

Winners: NDP and Conservatives

NDP Benefits, but Liberals Could be Big Winners: Day 18

Benjamin writes a fine analysis below on why the NDP won today -- so much so that we're inclined to give his analysis the benefit of being the deciding basis for turning the 11th on the calendar orange to the right of this posting.

That said, while the NDP is certainly going to be endeared by the eruption caused by a leaked Parliamentary report on spending at the G8 summit, the way that the rest of this week plays out will really determine where the Liberals end up on May 2 -- and the ball is firmly in their court now. Michael Ignatieff's herculean task of taking on the Prime Minister in tomorrow night's debate, and winning, becomes all the more crucial in light of this revelation, but a word of wisdom to the Liberal leader -- one of his predecessors, John Turner, quickly saw a supposed advantage over his Tory opponent turned against him when he took an patronage accusation against one Brian Mulroney too far 26 years ago; the rest, as they say, is history. Mr. Harper is a formidable adversary who, despite his perceived weaknesses, has proven that he learns from his mistakes over time; while the Liberals might be seeing today as a miracle, it could quickly turn into a curse if the Liberal leader enters tomorrow's debate overconfident and unattentive to his own weak spots.

Winner: The NDP...for now

One Week Later, Canadians Still Ask 'Why'?: Week 1 Post-Mortum

Dull as this campaign has become, one wonders how each of the three main federalist leaders are looking upon their efforts after week 1. It is clear that the Liberals have picked up the most momentum after the first seven days (see Shane's post above for more details on how this played in Day 7); their leader is beginning to be questioned about the budgeting of big ticket items from daycare to scholarships, but you wouldn't know it if the Liberals are worried right now as their events are energetic and Ignatieff is clearly finding his stride with the debate over a one-on-one debate.

If the Liberals have an issue that they should be concerned about, it is that the coverage of their campaign has been cotton balled to a certain degree -- if Michael Ignatieff looks like he has a good chance of becoming PM after May 2, he'll have to begin answering 'why': why the campaign now (aka what is the real reason to punish the Harper Conservatives?); why is he a valuable asset to voters? This will be the real test for the Liberals; one which the Tories failed in 2004 when they were in that position, but that the Liberals can draw lessons from.

Speaking of the Conservatives, their 'why' this week is why they are asking for votes at all? The blue campaign has actually been well-managed overall; the gaffes are small and likely already forgotten by Joe and Jane Canadian, Harper's policy announcements will stir the Tory base into action and the ads have done a good job at getting the governing party up to 39-41% in most polls. The air of staleness is quite the stench the Tories are giving off now though; they're not dead but they're certainly not lively either. The coalition talk has likely taken the party as far as it is going to get them and, going back to the why question, Harper's team would do well to spend the weekend trying to define their own vision of Canada for next week's campaign events. The flip-flop on the debate with the Liberal leader will hurt Harper's public image as a stable and decisive leader but, like the rest of the Conservative effort thus far, the party can recover if they pull it together in the coming days...or this could be the beginning of a slow and eventless implosion -- death by a thousand gradual cuts the Tories cannot be bothered to bandage.

The leader most in trouble tonight though has to be Jack Layton; as noted yesterday, he's at risk of becoming "Sideshow Jack" in this campaign by promising a few frivolous items that would find dye-in-the-wool NDPers hard-pressed to be inspired about, and by having his party almost completely shut out of the daily narrative. Even Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe and Green head Elizabeth May have earned themselves more influence so far in the English media than the NDP has; if this does not change soon, the NDP will find itself completely squeezed out by a polarized Con-Lib electorate and will have to fend for seats in already-parched Alberta, Saskatchewan and industrial centres in Winnipeg, Windsor and Hamilton. The NDP will have to find a defining attribute that it can attach itself to which the Liberals won't steal and the Conservatives won't touch. Otherwise, the 'why' the party will have to answer is why are you relevant in this campaign; a deadly question that has decimated the NDP in previous elections where it has failed to properly respond in kind.

Weekly Winners:
1st: The Liberals - for gaining momentum on the campaign trail
2nd: The Conservatives - for a stable, decent but hollow front runner campaign effort
3rd: The Bloc - for finding an effective Quebec narrative that even captured English Canada's attention
4th: The NDP - for failing to maintain a relevant place in the daily campaign happenings thus far

Liberals Find Their Big 'Mo: Day 6

Not since the weekend has there been a day so clearly won, and so clearly lost. The Liberals clearly had a good day today, buoyed by a trio of news stories which reinforces the truth that this is no longer Stephane Dion's election.

To begin with, in what has to be the first major self-inflicted wound of the campaign by a leader, Conservative leader Harper was painted as a flip-flopper on the issue of whether he would debate Liberal leader Ignatieff one-on-one. The Tories were quick to add that they never promised to do a full leaders' debate and a manno-a-manno version with the Liberal leader but the damage was already done -- regardless of who true or untrue this is, in politics image is far more important than reality and no voter or scribe has the attention span to sift through the lengthy party that the governing party provided.

To add extra sugar on the Liberal cake today, a new poll came out which put the Liberals well above the psychologically charged 30% milestone for the first time in recent memory. The Nanos poll, which can be found in full here, is interesting in that it has the Tories moving up in battleground Ontario while only losing steam in the largely irrelevant Prairies (where they'll likely win 110% of the seats anyway) and Atlantic Canada. The fact that the overall picture has the Liberals jump around 5 points at the expense of the NDP serves as a warning to Jack Layton's team that they risk becoming a side show in this election and will undoubtedly drive more Liberals to rethink sitting out this election -- a key win for the Opposition since any politically experienced person will tell you that a party which appears to be headed to destruction gets only a fraction of the volunteers while the rest sit the game out.

Finally, the Liberals released fundraising numbers that would make even the Tories blush. This will again help to motivate the Liberal base as money is a big deal; a party which has lots of it (as the Conservatives have for the last five years) will naturally be able to make the case that they are capable of fighting a top tier campaign.

Aside from the good vibes the Liberals are feeling, much of the coverage focused on the role the Green Party will (or won't) play in the upcoming debate. The Tories once again are showing signs of inability to react quickly to the campaign and have received little positive press coverage -- Liberal blogger and campaign mastermind Warren Kinsella's assessment that the Prime Minister is "phoning [the election] in" might start to resonate if the lack of Tory war room presence continues to be felt. On that note, where is the NDP today anyway?

Day 6 Winner: The Liberals

Liberals Gain One, Liberals Lose One: Day 5

And they're finally off! In what was one of the most bizarre campaign days in a generation (and that's saying a lot!), an NDP candidate in London quit to endorse the Liberals, a move that saved the coalition issue from being otherwise taken off the table today. This would have been a banner day for the main opposition party, except that their former by-election candidate and party stalwart in Vaughn publicly endorsed Tory MP Julian Fantino later today, marking a second defection. The headlines responded in kind and the two items will be making the newspaper front sections tomorrow morning.

The other major item today revolved around the leaders' debate, Green leader Elizabeth May's participation and Prime Minister Harper's open challenge to a one-on-one debate with Liberal leader Ignatieff. This will obviously be a game changer down the road, either if Ms. May gets an invitation that many did not expect her to receive again, or if there is a separate debate between the two poll-leading party leaders.

The Tories did get stuck with another ex-staffer-who-is-being-investigated-working-on-their-campaign story today, but as the headlines aren't keeping up with the fact that there was a first one, it is unlikely that this will stick to the Conservatives for now.

Summary: a more exciting day, but still not any major shifts in momentum that would see a different result.

Day 4 Winner: The Conservatives