Finding a Wedge: Day 23

Day 22 had the Liberals opening a new front on the Tories, as their hold on the electoral lines seemed to be weakening.

Day 23 shows the Tory defense holding. As the Liberals pressed forward on the healthcare theme, Harper has succeeded in (if only temporarily) changing the channel.

This new line of argument is simple and direct: a majority is needed to stop a resurgent separatist movement. It's topical. It's reinforced by this weekend's PQ convention. And it's a winnable issue for the Tories.

The Liberals seem to be almost caught flatfooted on the topic falling back on the argument that Harper is using "fear" to gain votes. That argument is not likely to gain any traction with an electorate that is watching ads produced by Liberals to scare them over healthcare.

It'll be interesting to see how this new tact from the Tories pans out. If they're successful it could lead to a Tory majority.

If they aren't they may have at least limited the damage being done to them on the Healthcare assault.

Day 23 Winner: The Tories

Liberal Counter-Attacks: Day 22

The beginning game is apparently over for the Liberal Party. I sense that a drastic change in strategy is afoot.

First, Jean Chretien and Paul Martin are now welcome generals in the Liberal fight.

Second, healthcare has apparently emerged as a Liberal theme. That cudgel was used successfully by Martin and Chretien to repetitively assault former and current Conservative foes with telling success.

Third, the Liberals have suddenly decided that negative ads do in fact work (again!). The people who invented the Canadian Attack Ad have come full circle.

The Tories have responded swiftly and adequately to this line of attack. As they should.

Healthcare is the ultimate wedge issue for the Liberals. The Tories are not seen (rightly or wrongly) as staunch defenders of the healthcare status-quo. This puts them on perilously dangerous ground. The standard Tory approach has been to triangulate on the issue and nullify it as soon as they can.

In a telling moment during the debates, Layton lead a healthcare charge against Harper. If you look carefully you can notice that Harper's posture and facial expression changes. It was telling, because I believe he was very concerned.

What the Liberals did today was the equivalent of pulling out the heavy artillery most generals save for emergencies. Good 'ol bunker Tory is getting hammered today.

The Tories did well in response, but they need to turn up the heat on their own if they want to survive. That means changing the channel before this Liberal assault gains legs.

That means they need to stage a counter-assault on a wedge issue of their own.

Day 22 Winner: The Liberals

Interesting Trends...

I'd like our loyal readers to look carefully at the results of Nanos daily polling done since the beginning of the election:

In particular, I found it interesting that the NDP's apparent recent "upward trend" didn't start with the debates (Despite what the MSM says).

The NDP's latest uptick began with a bottoming out on April the 8th.

The question is, what happened on or about the 8th?

If you look at the calendar to the right you will note that this blog awarded the NDP a string a victories starting on the 7th.

Coincidence? Or something more?

Tears & Ballots : Day 21

The debates are over. The flash of air assault fire that briefly took the electoral battlefield has abated.

Now the Guergis affair has flared up. And, I believe, it's causing the equivalent of battlefield blowback. Unintended as it may be, I believe that Guergis's highlighting of the allegations made against her makes Harper look good rather than bad.

Instead of Canadians asking themselves the question that Guergis (and surely the Liberals) would like, namely "Why did Haper turf her?" The question they will ask is "Why didn't he do it sooner."

I don't want to comment on whether the allegations are true. They clearly have no evidence to substantiate them.

But evidence doesn't matter in the court of public opinion. And that's where this election battle is being played.

Highlighting this issue shows Harper as mean, tough, unrepentant... and decisive. Something Ignatieff has consistently failed to convince Canadians of.

In effect, this highlights a contrast with Ignatieff that the Tories have been playing on themselves. Harper is decisive, meanwhile Ignatieff is "Just Visiting." Harper is competent, meanwhile Ignatieff is "Not here for you..."

Again, I'm not talking about concrete realities here, I'm talking about pure political positioning only.

With most polls showing that Tory Bunker is holding strong, I think the Tories have actually made some inches of progress on the battlefield today.

Day 21 Winner: The Tories

Loser, I declare thee Sona

Setting aside the allegations about "ethnic costumes" or Tamil candidates, I'll focus on what happened late in the day in Guelph. I don't know what exactly happened, but according to some students there, local Conservative Communications Director Michael Sona attempted to reach for and grab a ballot box at the polling station, arguing that it was an illegal poll.

From everything I've seen, he appears to have had a legitimate argument (and local Conservatives claim that he did not in fact reach for the ballot box). Regardless, this is EXACTLY the kind of publicity the Conservatives don't need right now, and precisely the wrong way of going about things.

While Stephen Harper has been condemned for the ruthless discipline he exercises in controlling his caucus, it must be remembered how utterly savage the national media used to be with every misstatement by a Canadian Alliance or Conservative candidate. Now that candidates are on such a short leash, the press has moved onto seizing on Conservative staffers.

Conservatives will argue that it was unfair, but one cannot campaign against both parties and the press, and so they should expect attention to be drawn to everything. The name of the game for the Conservatives now is to avoid controversy - and having anybody associated with a campaign openly confront voting officials is a prime example of what NOT to do. Allegations of disrespecting democracy already abound, and anything that reinforces that impression must be avoided at all cost.

While this may be attributed to it having been such a slow campaign day, this has the potential to grow. I'd even go so far as to say Guelph just started leaning more into the Liberal camp after today's incident. This one could be a costly loss in the quest for a Majority. This story fits a compelling Liberal narrative of Conservative contempt for democracy, and is already being seized upon by Liberal columnists. Just wait until the press finds out Mr. Sona works on the Hill and we'll see how much traction this will get.

So, no clear winners today, but the Conservatives lost on this front. They're going to get hammered even harder in the coming weeks. We'll have to wait to see what the full impact will be for them.

DAY 21 LOSER: Conservatives

"What Leadership is About": Debate Post-mortem

Many of the commentators are agreeing that Liberal Leader Ignatieff didn't fare well tonight; apparently, if you go to Liberal.ca, their war room isn't doing much better. Must not be the red party's day today...:

...and the Debate Winner Is: Day 18

Was there a knock-out punch tonight? After 27 years of relatively calm debates, yes!

Who was involved? Simply, Jack Layton when he zinged Michael Ignatieff for his attendance record in Parliament.

Who benefited from this? Layton will for sure -- the NDP numbers will certainly be going up after tonight. That said, Stephen Harper will have a big smile on his face tonight. The attendance zing symbolized the lacklustre performance of Liberal leader Ignatieff and was not able to throw Stephen Harper off-script.

Winners: NDP and Conservatives

NDP Benefits, but Liberals Could be Big Winners: Day 18

Benjamin writes a fine analysis below on why the NDP won today -- so much so that we're inclined to give his analysis the benefit of being the deciding basis for turning the 11th on the calendar orange to the right of this posting.

That said, while the NDP is certainly going to be endeared by the eruption caused by a leaked Parliamentary report on spending at the G8 summit, the way that the rest of this week plays out will really determine where the Liberals end up on May 2 -- and the ball is firmly in their court now. Michael Ignatieff's herculean task of taking on the Prime Minister in tomorrow night's debate, and winning, becomes all the more crucial in light of this revelation, but a word of wisdom to the Liberal leader -- one of his predecessors, John Turner, quickly saw a supposed advantage over his Tory opponent turned against him when he took an patronage accusation against one Brian Mulroney too far 26 years ago; the rest, as they say, is history. Mr. Harper is a formidable adversary who, despite his perceived weaknesses, has proven that he learns from his mistakes over time; while the Liberals might be seeing today as a miracle, it could quickly turn into a curse if the Liberal leader enters tomorrow's debate overconfident and unattentive to his own weak spots.

Winner: The NDP...for now

Little Battles: Day 18

At Vimy Ridge, Canadians did not take the notorious "Hill 145" in a stunning blaze of glory. There was no Herculean stunning upset from the clutches of defeat. Instead the battle plan called for a series of small successes - one dependent on the other in a long chain leading to victory.

I can't help but point out that the daily predictions of "wins" on this blog mirrors this concept. The Daily winners calendar at the right can be thought of as a map of battle: the results of a series of mini-battles leading to a victory.

Today was one such battle. It was one where the Tories paid dearly, and the Liberals seemed to get caught in the mess.

Auditor General Sheila Fraser's Preliminary G20 report was ammunition for the opposition to pound the Tories as they roll into the debates. Playing the classic front-runner's campaign can only hold so long.

Yet the Liberals hardly faired better. Ignatieff found himself explaining away contradictory remarks made by himself regarding voting in foreign elections (namely did he?). This no doubt falls directly into the line of attack that the Tories have been playing: "He didn't come back for you." The Liberal leader has found himself exposed and in the line of fire directly.

Meanwhile the NDP managed to generate some negative headlines for both the Liberals and Tories for carting around and paying for (with taxpayer money mind you) Senators to move around the country during the campaign. They got praise for the number of women NDP candidates they're running in spite of everything.

Day 16 Winner: The NDP

Today does look a little sickly orange.

Layton Unveils the Liberal (Oops! NDP) Platform: Day 16

The NDP – not to be undone by the Liberals – have shown with their platform unveil that they are truly representative of the ‘tax and spend’ progressives that had plagued Canada for years in the ‘70s. They are promising to overindulge in spending by promising $60 billion in four years – funded in part by a corporate tax hike to 18 percent and additional revenue from a cap-n-trade scheme. Progressives will surely be impressed by their promises in creating more jobs, more green initiatives, better healthcare, and higher quality education. To break down the numbers, using the Conservative recent budget proposal in March as a baseline, Jack Layton is promising only $12.6 billion more in this fiscal year, and only $20.7 billion more in 2014-15. However, like the Conservatives and there miraculous discovery of $11 billion – a shortfall supposedly credited in efficiency savings that no one knew about a few weeks ago – the NDP have also found such an increase in savings and are promising to balance the budget a year ahead of schedule in 2014-15. Normally such an unrealistic utopian vision from Mr Layton would not bother Canadians with at least an ounce of sanity and common sense, but it is a very real possibility the NDP could have a role in government if Stephen Harper’s majority is thwarted. As such, the media is treating the NDP’s platform as a serious proposal that could effect change in Canada’s economic policies, also noting the similarities in the progressive offerings between them and the Liberal platform.

Mr Layton is undoubtedly worried about his dropping poll numbers, as he collapses in Ontario but remains competitive with the Tories in BC. There has been an erosion from the NDP to the Liberals in Ontario, credited in part to Michael Ignatieff’s positioning of the Liberals as the only alternative to beat Mr Harper. Therefore, at the platform launch today, Mr Layton was extremely wise to go after the Liberals today, citing much more vitriol against Mr Ignatieff than typical.

While much of the rest of today was uneventful, Gilles Duceppe of the Bloc Quebecois has proven that the a game of hockey – especially one involving a classic matchup between the Habs and Bruins – takes precedence over democracy in Canada. The French debate was originally scheduled for Thursday of this week, but after the Bloc – quickly followed by their coalition partners – complained about the date being set at exactly the same time as the hockey game, it was moved by the consortium of broadcasters to Wednesday. Somehow the story was manipulated by the opposition to be a testament of the Conservative’s  undemocratic ways, since it was argued by some that Mr Harper wanted less Canadians to watch the debate. While this is absurd, the coalition partners must be credited for keeping this narrative alive.

In fact, overall the Conservative Party had a pessimistic day. New Nanos numbers show the Conservatives and Liberals tied in Ontario, which suggest a majority will be difficult – if not impossible – to obtain. Also, news has come out that the Conservatives have tried to quietly approve bonuses for their ministerial office staffers, and the optics of this could be disastrous. Further, Stephen Woodworth has been embroiled in a mini-faux scandal in Kitchener Centre, after tweeting an “insensitive” joke on Twitter – with the punch line involving “crippled”. This is not good for the Tories in this riding, as it was taken from the Liberals in the last election by a close margin. Karen Redman – who held the riding until Mr Woodworth defeated her in the 2008 federal election – is running for the Liberals again, and it will be tough one.

Some parts of today are salvageable for the Conservatives, however. Speaking to reporters, Harper warned that if he fails to get a majority come 2 May, the opposition will enact policies similar to what was seen in the Trudeau government. Of course, progressives will salivate over the possibility, but the reality is that was a time when unemployment was at double digits, interest rates were high, spending was high, and so were taxes astronomical. While many Canadians have a favourable view of the late Pierre Trudeau – in part due to the indoctrination the education system and media has provided – the bad times in the late ‘70s and early ‘80s will resonate with some.

As for the Liberals, they stayed out of the political spot light mostly today and were really a non-factor. I hear Mr Ignatieff has (or had) a stop in Kingston, Ontario, where Liberal candidate Ted Hsu and Alicia Gordon are in a dead heat to take the former Speaker's seat -- Peter Milliken has since retired. I find it convenient he is there now, since I just left Kingston temporarily to canvass the Waterloo region. (Clearly, this is a politically opportunistic move, because he did not want to face the wrath of Shane Coote in person).

Now, considering what happened today, the NDP solidly “won” on the campaign trail. Their platform release in Toronto stole most of the headlines in the news, and the Conservatives had a rough day.

Day 16 Winner: New Democratic Party

Day 16 Loser: Conservative Party of Canada

Dippers Laughing: Day 13

Another day, another candidate spewing nonsense for Ignatieff to handle.

Harper finally apologized for evicting teery eyed children from rallies, and Jack Layton has decided to triangulate on the Law & Order issue.

But first a joke:

A Canadian bloke is walking down the street with a case of beer under his arm.

His friend Randy stops him and asks, "Hey Dave! Whatcha got that case of beer for?"

"Well, I got it for my wife, you see?" answers Dave.

"Wow," exclaims Randy, "Great trade."

What does this have to do with Day 13? Absolutely nothing. Ok, enough testing the patience of the editors of this blog - back to some strategic musings.

Day 13 Winner: The NDP

The Tories latest TFSA promise is a clever policy aimed at their natural winning issue: taxes. That being said, as they opened ground, the NDP have closed it in by moving into the middle on crime.

Crime, and Law& Order, are natural Tory winnable issues. The NDP's recent move, in my opinion, closes the gap with the Tories and has a "knock-the-wind-out" effect on the Tories on this issue.

To make matters worse the Dippers also came out on a healthcare offense against the Tories today. Healthcare is definitely not a winnable issue for the Tories. Layton warmed up the "two-tier" healthcare horn putting Harper on the defensive on an issue he'd much rather avoid.

In short the NDP managed to punch Harper twice in the gut today. They'll need more days like this if they hope to avoid loosing seats.

The Day Iggy Wished He Could Forget: Day 12

When you wake up in the morning and you find out that one of your Quebec candidates is allegedly a White Supremasist (or at least not particularly overly zealously pro-aboriginal) you know this day isn't going to be a good one.

That was Ignatieff's Day 12 of the 2011 federal election. Although well handled (the candidate was turfed) all he can hope for is that the page will turn quickly and the damage will be minimal.

Because even though this could have easily happened to any of the other federal parties, it doesn't ever seem to matter to the media.

Day 12 Winner: The Tories

They were missing from this story from the get go - it's the NDP that deserve cudos. Yet as always in Canadian politics, hardly ever does the victor get the spoils.

Without a Liberal Candidate to name in Manicougan, the Tories will certainly pick up some votes - maybe even enough to defeat the Bloc in that riding (The Tories did come in second there last time).

The NDP will get some new votes, but not much. Their role will most likely be forgotten by week's end.

The Day the Tories Needed: Day 11

As with most things during this campaign, it's what didn't happen today that really made a difference. After a Monday where the Prime Minister was asked the same question that inevitably comes up every election -- will he change any laws with respect to abortion -- and he invariably lost votes from both sides of the issue as a result, the Conservatives have bounced back quite nicely today by not letting the issue linger. In short, this may be the election when the Tories finally outgrow the "secret agenda" tag that was put upon them back in 2000 when Stockwell Day led the Canadian Alliance.

Balancing this, the governing party also unveiled a pair of ads today which put the focus squarely on the economy -- this is a winning issue for the Conservatives and, as noted here on Sunday, the Liberals might have done themselves in with their platform by releasing a document that belongs in a "times are good" season, not one where jobs and the economic well-being of the country is on the brink. With two new ads, both of them heavily borrowed from the US (for the record, all parties here steal from south of the border), but both of them well-executed to deliver the Tory message effectively. If the Tories continue to follow this strategy, they will win many more days to come.



Day 11 Winner: The Conservatives

The Day of Boring Nothings: Day 11

Another day in this election campaign has gone by... I wonder if anyone noticed?

Besides the desperate debate inclusion ruminations by Green Party leader Elizabeth May, was there anything of substance that any average Canuck would dare to waste five seconds to think about?

There are continuous stories about legendary Harper Aide Bruce Carson's lurid past... Which included among other things, being hired by Stephen Harper, and not to mention having been convicted of fraud thirty years ago in a case no one remembers. He also "may", just "may", have broken the law when he thought he had a valid loophole. Riveting. I really think the whole thing was a ploy for the media to run spreads of his alleged 20 something girlfriend and former prostitute. That does sell papers. I doubt it will change any votes.

What may cause some lost votes, is the Tories propensity for kicking out veterans, youth, and teary eyed children for being security risks at Harper Rallies.

That isn't quite the best way to gain votes. It may not cost them much, but this is exactly the type of thing that can cause people long term enemies.

Because there's nothing else going on today, I'm forced to make my call for today's winner based solely on the dry small facts above.

Day 11 Winner: The Liberals

Not because they were good at anything, but because (in a typically Canadian fashion) they were less bad than everybody else. If Iggy is going to win through "a death by a thousand cuts" this day was one such cut.

Liberals Convert the Choir, Seek After Faithful With Platform: Day 9

For those following the election closely, today was bound to be a monumental one, either for good or ill, for each of the main parties. The Liberals announced their platform today, titled "Your Family. Your Future. Your Canada.", which borrowed heavily from the Tory strategy in 2006 to provide 5 key planks and then a bundle of other details. The question is did it work though?

The answer heavily influences who won today's battle on the campaign trail and, given the feedback and optics of this platform release, there is relative ease in saying that the Tories were quite happy with what they saw today. While it was obvious in reading through the highlights of the Liberal document that the opposition party is heavily relying on retail politics, the scope of target voters that would appreciate the document, combined with the fact that the economy is hardly highlighted will be giving the Conservatives an extra edge during the remaining month of the election period. The media has been constantly reminding us for years that Canadians don't love Stephen Harper, they just respect him and it's hardly a struggle to see the average Canadian's opinion of Harper's premiership during the economic downturn as being a major influencing factor. The Liberals, while running a very good campaign, image-wise, so far, have mistaken people warming up to Micheal Ignatieff's smiling face for a budding trust in him to manage the economy. If the Tories begin to wake up and put these factors together, it would be a lethal month that the Liberals are now facing. The document is far too insular, attempting to appease recent Liberal base grievances with the Conservatives while failing to understand just why Canadians sent the blue party to Ottawa with successively stronger minority mandates during the last five years.

Put another way, for those who loath the incumbent Prime Minister are frustrated with his ability to attain 40% nationally in recent polls just by hum-hawing through the last week of campaigning, just imagine what he'll be pushing if his team clues into the gift that Mr. Ignatieff just handed him...

Tories and Grits Take a Break, While Dippers and Separatists Overwork: Day 8

All honest and hard-working citizens deserve a break every once and while in Canada, and so the frontrunners of the 41^st General Election thought it wise to avoid the cameras today – in spite of the fact that the Globe & Mail reported common knowledge of the costliness of running a federal election (approximately 300 million dollars – a 50 percent increase from a decade ago). Notwithstanding, the remaining federalist – the NDP – and separatist – the Bloc – parties decided vacationing wasn’t for them, rising to the occasion to show Canadians – or French speaking separatists – that they are ready to stand up and commit. Indeed both Jack Layton of the NDP and Gilles Duceppe of the Bloc Quebecois wagered that remaining on the campaign trail was a deep sacrifice voters would recognize as being forthright and respectable. Unfortunately for both Mr Layton and Mr Duceppe, their day to shine in the political spotlight did not pan out the way they would have particularly wanted.

For starters, Mr Layton and his party were banking on an “orange wave” to hit Canada, after holding their biggest rally yet in the NDP stronghold of Halifax, Nova Scotia – holding two of the five seats in the area, the electoral region, and particularly Halifax, was represented in the past by former party leader Alexa McDonough and is currently held by New Democrat Premier Darrell Dexter. The crowd was estimated to be 400, and Layton made an announcement concerning veteran’s benefits, specifically promising to stop reductions in pension payments and helping veterans shift to trade and construction jobs. The media, on the other hand, went after Mr Layton hard for only attracting the most loyal disciples to attend such rallies, pointing to higher attendance numbers from previous elections. Mr Layton felt obliged to criticize the media, commenting to one reporter, “Oh come on!”. Frankly, it has been quite a disaster for Mr Layton since the beginning of the election, the energy from their national campaign dismal and irrelevant. What was supposed to be the NDP’s opportunity to breakthrough today has simply reinforced the lethargy that has consumed their former campaign vigour. I am afraid Mr Layton really failed to score big with today’s “massive” – sorely under-attended – rally.

The Bloc, akin to the French, is having a hard time keeping Quebec City. Gilles Duceppe spent most of today in the eastern part of the riding Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier, where controversial incumbent Andre Arthur currently sits. I suspect Mr Duceppe believes the Bloc has a fighting chance against the independent, citing Arthur’s lack of attendance in Parliament and odd behaviour from working part-time as a bus driver. Also, the Bloc have launched themselves into the debate frenzy Premier Jean Charest has had with the Conservatives over plans to help fund the Lower Churchill hydro project in Labrador. The controversy was finally picked up by English media this morning, and it is suggested that the Bloc may eat away at the few seats the Conservatives actually have in the province.

With that said, recent poll data released today by Nanos (again) shows that Mr Duceppe’s strategy has been weak thus far, showing the federalist parties remaining viable and the Conservative Party gaining momentum – even surpassing the Liberals. The difficulty for both Mr Duceppe and (more so) Premier Charest is that they have lost a lot of legitimacy and support amongst Quebeckers. While Mr Duceppe personally remains personable and likable, his party’s purpose is lacking in a time that separation is no longer being discussed. Premier Charest’s attack may turn out to benefit the Conservatives in the end, as Quebeckers are frequently reminded of alleged corruption in the Charest government.

For the most part, that was the national discussion and campaigning that took place today. Lacking in new information, reporters and columnists continued to bash Mr Harper for only allowing five questions per press conference, and had a field day about the possibility of a one-on-one debate between Mr Ignatieff and Mr Harper. Above all, there seems to be a lot of interest in comedian Rick Mercer’s proposal to host a possible one-on-one debate, adding fuel to the fire. There is a perception by some that Mr Harper went back on his word by first inciting and then refusing to debate Mr Ignatieff in a dual. Of course, others suggest that Mr Harper is in fact a Machiavellian of-sort by doing so. For example, David Frum today suggested Mr Harper exploited Mr Ignatieff’s real disdain against him. That is, by having Mr Ignatieff focus on a conversation about himself and on a debate that clearly leaves out Mr Layton and Mr Duceppe, the opposition is divided instead of united in their messaging against the government in power. The perception of backing out may have an effect on Mr Harper’s leadership rank though.

The Conservatives have not taken too much of a hit for these “gaffes”, however. The Nanos poll mentioned above shows the Conservative up from 39.4 yesterday to 41.3 percent (majority territory). A fine line must be tread by the Conservative, because albeit gains have been made at the expense of the Liberals in Atlantic Canada and Quebec, there has been a small drop in Ontario toward the Liberals. Winning seats throughout Ontario – by capturing key electoral districts like Kingston & the Islands (where I am from currently), holding onto southwestern gains, and breaking through the GTA – is a must if the Conservatives want that coveted majority. Nevertheless, despite this drop in Ontario, I believe the Conservatives won today, simply by crossing over that 40 percent threshold.

Then again, does winning today really mean anything? Let us frank, the Conservatives did well because the Liberals were out of the picture, the Bloc is nothing new, and the NDP is irrelevant. Tomorrow is going to present new challenges for the Tories, as the Liberals launch their platform. The Conservatives plan on having Jim Flaherty speak on it, but I sure hope their prepared for the media love-fest over it that will ensue after its release.

Day 8 Winner: Conservative Party of Canada

Week 1 in Review

As part of a continuing effort I hope to present a reoccurring strategic summary of how each party did generally against three criteria:
1) Were they effective in shaping the national ballot question?
2) Were they effective in responding in attacks?
3) Did they position themselves effectively in the policies and promises made thus far?

I’ve made the intentional decision to exclude the Bloc Quebequois from my assessment, because the Bloc doesn’t fit the normative paradigm of a Canadian political party.

The NDP

I would criticize the NDP’s ineffective attempt at framing the ballot question for voters, if I could discern a clear message from the NDP whatsoever. I suppose the biggest problem the NDP face is that they need to frame a drastically different message from one end of the country to another. In BC it’s more about the Tories. In Ontario – it’s all about taking down the Liberals. But I think it’s more than that. The NDP’s ballot question, I believe, needs to be the only one that counts – you need to elect NDP MPs to keep a minority government honest. When the electoral prospect of a majority government becomes more and more a reality, it leaves the NDP little room to manoeuvre in.

In terms of policy I am truly baffled at the NDP’s decisions. I would think their main strategy would be to press the Liberals from the margins. That means wherever the Liberals are, the NDP is a little bit more. Yet Mr Layton’s recent policy announcement of increases in the same corporate taxes that the Liberals want to raise while at the same time lowering some business taxes has put the NDP in unfamiliar ground – more centrist than the Liberals. I fail to see how this benefits the NDP significantly (except for possibly the highly competitive battleground of BC). Yet the NDP’s recent credit card interest rate cap announcement provides that sharp contrast one would more expect from the NDP, and positions them a lot more favourably with respect to the other national parties. Overall I would say the NDP has chosen a mixed policy positioning that risks it being ignored exactly in a campaign where it cannot afford to be ignored.

I really can’t comment on the NDP’s ability to respond to attacks, mainly because they have had scant attacks launched against them. Most of the attacks come in the veiled threat of a “Coalition”, which I think overall the party and the leader has been much more capable of defending, and counter-attacking than either the Liberals or the Bloc Quebequois.


The Liberals

The Liberals have not really shaped the national debate whatsoever this past week. The question they need out there is “are you better off now than you were five years ago.” That question has gotten buried somewhere in the talk of “Coalition” or of one-on-one debate shenanigans (Memo to National Party Leaders: no one cares who doesn’t want to debate who one-on-one). I don’t think Ignatieff has been particularly on message, though I suspect it must be very difficult him to do just that right now.

I do think that this past week has show cased some very important policy for the Liberals that places them very well strategically - but not perfectly. The new education bursaries and the new home care EI supplement are sticking to areas that are true “winnable” issues for the Liberals: education and social policy. The Tories aren’t going to be able to easily nullify these sharp policy differences and the NDP seems almost uninterested. That being said, I believe firmly that the Liberals should have never committed to ending the corporate tax rate reduction for this year. Taxes are not a winnable issue for the Liberals. Providing this sharp policy difference allows the Tories to charge Ignatieff with the “high tax” label.

I think that the Liberal response to NDP and Tory attacks has been surprisingly well this past week. From what I’ve seen there wasn’t a single headline the Tories could make with the Liberal response finding its way directly in the story. Whatever they’re doing on this front they need to keep doing.


The Tories

The Tories have been an abysmal failure this past week at responding to opposition attacks. It’s been almost a joke. News article, after article this past week (that I’ve read) has shown no political response from the right wing party. This leads me either to conclude that the Tories are either utterly disorganized or (believing they are ahead) they are more afraid to respond and screw up to actually respond. There is the possibility that the decision to limit reporters to 5 questions a day has given every excuse for the press to ignore Harper’s response team. Either way this past week I was stunned to see a national governing party so utterly unable to counter attacks.

The Tories did do one thing right this past week: They announced the Income Splitting promise. The measure will allow Canadian families with children to save thousands a year in taxes – a true bread and butter issue for the Tories. The economy and taxes are a natural “winnable” issue for the Conservatives. Poignant is the fact that the best opposition response so far has been to criticize the late implementation period. Very few on the left have actually come out to criticize the measure and national opposition leaders seem to have become very quickly silent on the issue.

The Tories started the week tarring and feathering Count Ignatieff with the “Coalition” label. That issue, it’s becoming obvious, is the central ballot question Harper wants to make. It has dominated the debate of the last week. If it were only for this reason, and this reason alone I think that I could say that the Tories were the most effective national political party this past week.

That was the week that was. The Tories didn't perform spectacularly - they just did less bad than others. To me it's them that therefore wins this week.

And The First Week Ends With A Whimper: Day 7

In all its glory, the first week of the 41^st General Election concluded with what has been possibly the dullest day thus far. Aside from Stephen Harper’s policy announcement that the Conservatives plan on eliminating the $2 per vote party-subsidy – an unsurprising proposal since the media has been hampering the Conservatives on it for a while now – there was really no story to tell.

Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff spent most of today in southern Ontario working to garner as much support possible in the key background electoral districts of Kitchener-Centre and Kitchener-Waterloo. The Conservatives must fight tooth and nail to keep these ridings – only winning them in 2008 by the slimmest of margins – especially since their incumbents, Stephen Woodworth and Peter Braid respectively, are not stellar candidates. From what I have heard, the Liberals intend on releasing their party’s platform in the coming days, so Ignatieff stayed clear from proposing any grand ideas – all he promised was another one billion dollar program for family care. Besides, the Liberals already promised their billion dollar national day care boondoggle (the 6^th time I believe since 1993) yesterday, and they would hardly want to take away from the remarkable and mind-blowing astonishment voters get from hearing about it for the first (6^th) time.

Instead, Ignatieff filled the void of policy talk by relishing the fact that Stephen Harper went back on his word on a possible one-on-one debate between the two, writing an open letter and then twittering about it. Also, according to my sources from the region, he went on the radio airwaves to answer a few questions from the regionally popular commentator Jeff Allan (507 News: All New Radio). It was thought he did well and answered clearly.

Somewhere in the political wilderness (actually Sudbury, Ontario), Jack Layton promised something about health care – judging from the podium he spoke from he wants “More Doctors & Nurses”) – but considering the fact I actually had to exert effort to find out what the NDP were up to today by spending a wasteful minute googling Jack’s name, they may as well have not existed. With that said, it was important for Layton to visit northern Ontario, because his party captured five seats in the region in the last election. Their lack of enthusiasm for scrapping the gun-registry may yet to haunt them, but I suspect they are more worried about the Liberals taking their seats than the Conservatives.

As mentioned earlier, Stephen Harper made a typical policy announcement from Moncton. According to Harper, the per-vote subsidy – as enormous welfare cheques to a political party’s war chest – is the means to why we are constantly having elections in Canada. In part, I agree with the Conservatives on this one, but I suspect this policy announcement will have the effect of energizing their base, rather than attracting new voters to vote for them. There is a slight change to the proposal, compared to their attempt to rid of it in 2008. They plan on phasing out the subsidy in 3 years, rather than suddenly eliminating it.

And that is pretty much it for the national leaders. Nothing special. Nothing bizarre. Nothing captivating. Nevertheless, it looks like Quebec Premier Jean Charest is determined to be a thorn in Stephen Harper's side. He came out today condemning the Conservative plan that would provide financial support for Labrador’s Lower Churchill hydro project to build power lines from Labrador through Nova Scotia and potentially into the United States. Charest is afraid that this would make the Lower Churchill hydro project into a possible competitor with Hydro-Quebec (from my understanding the Atlantic provinces would be able to sell their energy directly to the U.S. rather than through Quebec as the current arrangement has them doing), and is telling Quebeckers Stephen Harper is betraying them by giving a subsidy for Atlantic Canada. The implications of this could be bad for the few Conservatives they have in Quebec. It will hurt their chances from taking a few seats from the Bloc as well.

For the most part, election coverage for today has been a bit dull and will have little effect. Perhaps Charest’s bashing of Stephen Harper will play in Quebec, but nationally nothing will change. I will argue, however, this works in Ingatieff’s favour, since Harper really needs to step up his “A” game if he wants a majority. In fact, a new Nanos Leadership Index released today has shown that, as of 31 March, Ingatieff’s leadership rank has gone up 4 points since two weeks ago – from 40 to 44. Although Harper's leadership score remains far ahead at 98 points, Ingatieff’s small gains make me assess the Liberals as the winners for 1 April.

Day 7 Winner: Liberal Party of Canada (slightly)

One Week Later, Canadians Still Ask 'Why'?: Week 1 Post-Mortum

Dull as this campaign has become, one wonders how each of the three main federalist leaders are looking upon their efforts after week 1. It is clear that the Liberals have picked up the most momentum after the first seven days (see Shane's post above for more details on how this played in Day 7); their leader is beginning to be questioned about the budgeting of big ticket items from daycare to scholarships, but you wouldn't know it if the Liberals are worried right now as their events are energetic and Ignatieff is clearly finding his stride with the debate over a one-on-one debate.

If the Liberals have an issue that they should be concerned about, it is that the coverage of their campaign has been cotton balled to a certain degree -- if Michael Ignatieff looks like he has a good chance of becoming PM after May 2, he'll have to begin answering 'why': why the campaign now (aka what is the real reason to punish the Harper Conservatives?); why is he a valuable asset to voters? This will be the real test for the Liberals; one which the Tories failed in 2004 when they were in that position, but that the Liberals can draw lessons from.

Speaking of the Conservatives, their 'why' this week is why they are asking for votes at all? The blue campaign has actually been well-managed overall; the gaffes are small and likely already forgotten by Joe and Jane Canadian, Harper's policy announcements will stir the Tory base into action and the ads have done a good job at getting the governing party up to 39-41% in most polls. The air of staleness is quite the stench the Tories are giving off now though; they're not dead but they're certainly not lively either. The coalition talk has likely taken the party as far as it is going to get them and, going back to the why question, Harper's team would do well to spend the weekend trying to define their own vision of Canada for next week's campaign events. The flip-flop on the debate with the Liberal leader will hurt Harper's public image as a stable and decisive leader but, like the rest of the Conservative effort thus far, the party can recover if they pull it together in the coming days...or this could be the beginning of a slow and eventless implosion -- death by a thousand gradual cuts the Tories cannot be bothered to bandage.

The leader most in trouble tonight though has to be Jack Layton; as noted yesterday, he's at risk of becoming "Sideshow Jack" in this campaign by promising a few frivolous items that would find dye-in-the-wool NDPers hard-pressed to be inspired about, and by having his party almost completely shut out of the daily narrative. Even Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe and Green head Elizabeth May have earned themselves more influence so far in the English media than the NDP has; if this does not change soon, the NDP will find itself completely squeezed out by a polarized Con-Lib electorate and will have to fend for seats in already-parched Alberta, Saskatchewan and industrial centres in Winnipeg, Windsor and Hamilton. The NDP will have to find a defining attribute that it can attach itself to which the Liberals won't steal and the Conservatives won't touch. Otherwise, the 'why' the party will have to answer is why are you relevant in this campaign; a deadly question that has decimated the NDP in previous elections where it has failed to properly respond in kind.

Weekly Winners:
1st: The Liberals - for gaining momentum on the campaign trail
2nd: The Conservatives - for a stable, decent but hollow front runner campaign effort
3rd: The Bloc - for finding an effective Quebec narrative that even captured English Canada's attention
4th: The NDP - for failing to maintain a relevant place in the daily campaign happenings thus far

Liberals Find Their Big 'Mo: Day 6

Not since the weekend has there been a day so clearly won, and so clearly lost. The Liberals clearly had a good day today, buoyed by a trio of news stories which reinforces the truth that this is no longer Stephane Dion's election.

To begin with, in what has to be the first major self-inflicted wound of the campaign by a leader, Conservative leader Harper was painted as a flip-flopper on the issue of whether he would debate Liberal leader Ignatieff one-on-one. The Tories were quick to add that they never promised to do a full leaders' debate and a manno-a-manno version with the Liberal leader but the damage was already done -- regardless of who true or untrue this is, in politics image is far more important than reality and no voter or scribe has the attention span to sift through the lengthy party that the governing party provided.

To add extra sugar on the Liberal cake today, a new poll came out which put the Liberals well above the psychologically charged 30% milestone for the first time in recent memory. The Nanos poll, which can be found in full here, is interesting in that it has the Tories moving up in battleground Ontario while only losing steam in the largely irrelevant Prairies (where they'll likely win 110% of the seats anyway) and Atlantic Canada. The fact that the overall picture has the Liberals jump around 5 points at the expense of the NDP serves as a warning to Jack Layton's team that they risk becoming a side show in this election and will undoubtedly drive more Liberals to rethink sitting out this election -- a key win for the Opposition since any politically experienced person will tell you that a party which appears to be headed to destruction gets only a fraction of the volunteers while the rest sit the game out.

Finally, the Liberals released fundraising numbers that would make even the Tories blush. This will again help to motivate the Liberal base as money is a big deal; a party which has lots of it (as the Conservatives have for the last five years) will naturally be able to make the case that they are capable of fighting a top tier campaign.

Aside from the good vibes the Liberals are feeling, much of the coverage focused on the role the Green Party will (or won't) play in the upcoming debate. The Tories once again are showing signs of inability to react quickly to the campaign and have received little positive press coverage -- Liberal blogger and campaign mastermind Warren Kinsella's assessment that the Prime Minister is "phoning [the election] in" might start to resonate if the lack of Tory war room presence continues to be felt. On that note, where is the NDP today anyway?

Day 6 Winner: The Liberals